2009 Kentucky Derby Breakdown

After reading the 2009 Kentucky Derby past performances sheet, I had an epiphany as to how I should bet the 11th race at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 2nd and that is to go with my gut for NYSPI's annual breakdown of the Run for the Roses.

If you don't know, Quality Road, Square Eddie, Take the Points and Win Willy have all recently dropped out of the field, but don't you worry, there's still gonna be the 2o-horse maximum, like we've seen each year since '05.

Kudos to the trainers of these colts for not pulling the trigger in desperation. They definitely did the right thing, especially since the truth is that there's a heightened pressure to avoid all injuries in this year's Derby (and Swine Flu).

And now, your Derby Breakdown...

Who do ya like to win it all?

FRIESAN FIRE

• three straight wins in graded races, all on dirt
  
• increasing Beyer figure (94, 97, 104) in each of last three (graded) races - no one thinks he's going to bounce in the Derby, especially with his last workout over the dirt at Churchill
  
• weather - last race in the slop he decimated the competition; forecast at Churchill on Saturday calls for a 80% chance of thunderstorms.
  
• trainer Larry Jones - two second place finishes in last two years (Hard Spun '07 & Eight Belles '08) in the Kentucky Derby and he's got FRIESAN on the same schedule.
  

Top choice, fast or muddy track.

Other contenders?

I WANT REVENGE - yielded highest Beyer (113) of any colt in the Derby in Wood Memorial at Aqueduct - arguably the best individual effort in racing this year...so far.

DUNKIRK - too inexperienced to win, but could close like a mad man.

CHOCOLATE CANDY - for all the talk about PIONEEROFTHENILE, who by the way has yet to run on dirt or break a 100 Beyer figure, his sweetness could very well be better at 1 1/4 miles.

DESERT PARTY - hard to handicap UAE trained horse, but supposedly better than counterpart REGAL RANSOM even though RANSOM beat DESERT by half a length in their last race.

PAPA CLEM - gritty competitor who won last race in Arkansas Derby and has noteworthy 2nd place finishes to FRIESAN FIRE and PIONEEROFTHENILE.

SUMMER BIRD - stretch bet for inexperienced horse with steadily increasing Beyer figures and pedigree that screams for this distance and longer.

It's amazing, the amount of hype that is poured into "the most exciting two minutes in sports."

Can't wait.

Safety and Integrity: New Concepts for Horse Racing

NYSPI's last post discussed the context of Eight Belles' death in the 2008 Kentucky Derby. Ray Paulick offers similar thoughts in his article of April 13.

In related news, Churchill Downs and Kenneland have received full certification from the recently created NTRA Safety and Integrity Alliance. The Safety and Integrity Alliance aims to set a (long overdue) code of national standards to improve the sport.

A credible, legitimate effort to hold others accountable is just what the horse racing world needs and represents the first time the U.S. is making a collective effort to raise awareness about two issues that have historically been low priorities.

In the past year, we've seen our first Breeder's Cup on polytrack and a nationwide clampdown on steroids and other performance enhancing drugs. That's good progress.

All in all, people are valuing equine safety more than ever before.

Churchill Downs' racing surfaces meet the highest national standards.

To me though, the biggest sign of the times is that Keeneland, which uses artificial polytrack, has received the same accreditation from the Safety & Integrity Alliance as Churchill Downs.

That's proof that the all-weather surfaces are a legitimate player in the horse racing world.

But the double-top-secret, super duper proof that artificial racing surfaces are here to stay is the creation of the Racing Surfaces Testing Laboratory. The lab has received start-up funding from the Churchill Downs Inc., NTRA Charities, the Jockey Club and others, most notably in this forum, NYRA.

In recent and unfortunate news, we've seen a sad man named Ernie Paragallo finally get industry-doors like NYRA's shut in his face after being charged with 22 accounts of animal cruelty for neglecting an entire horse farm in Climax, NY.

And then there's the controversy surrounding the trainer of Kentucky Derby favorite I Want Revenge, Jeff Mullins, who has been suspended by the New York State Racing and Wagering Board for an illegally injecting another horse, Gato Go Win, before a race.

So as much as I'd like to streak across my neighborhood in celebration of the unprecedented strides that American horse racing has seen in the past year, it's real integrity guys like Paragallo and Mullins that keep a dark cloud cast over horse racing and as a result, quell my hopes of really making the sport safer.

What all this means to me is that polytrack, Tapeta and all artifical racing surfaces are looking more and more like solutions than anything else.

Triple Crown, Hold the Polytrack

It's 2009 and a whole new batch of strapping 3 year-old horses are getting primed to 'Run for the Roses' on Saturday, May 2. That means NYSPI is back in full effect.

With Triple Crown fever brewing around the country and the ubiquitous presence of polytrack (all-weather surfaces), my mind's been on Belmont. The site of the final leg of the Triple Crown in southern New York every June just might deserve special status.

Belmont is unique to all other New York thoroughbred tracks because of this one race that eteranlly links it to Churchill Downs and Pimlico to make up the greatest tradition in all of horse racing. Does anyone really dispute this?

Good, because if you don't, consider that Churchill Downs is not currently slated to have polytrack installed. Nor is Pimlico. They're both cool with dirt and so is all of New York.

If Churchill Downs and Pimlico (2 of 3 Triple Crown race sites) retain their dirt racing surfaces, it would be hard to justify installing it at the last Triple Crown track - Belmont.

Who wants to promote a Triple Crown trail that entails the first two races on dirt and the last one on polytrack? That's stupid.

If Churchill and Pimlico don't install polytrack then neither should Belmont.

But, that doesn't mean New York State should do nothing. Every other track in New York should install polytrack in a conscious effort to make horse racing safer.

Kentucky uses polytrack at Keeneland. New York should follow suit and at least mandate it at all NYRA-owned tracks.

Remembering Eight Belles' death in the Kentucky Derby last year is appropriate here because it happened on a dirt track. However, with all respect to Eight Belles, her catastrophic injuries should be considered an extremely rare tragedy.

For her legs to brake after the race the way they did, without her crashing into other horses or clipping heels with them, is something that I believe even the head veterinarian at Churchill said he had never seen in all his years of experience.

However, if the horse racing power players decide they want to make the sport safer by installing polytrack at Churchill and Pimlico, it'll be a no-brainer to do the same at Belmont.

That would be just fine by me.